The premise behind the stat is as follows. 

            A player should be rewarded for two things.  The ability to score efficiently is the first one.  This is calculated by points per scoring opportunity.  (Scoring opportunity is a field goal attempt or a trip to the free throw line.)  Then a player is rewarded for his ability to create his own scoring opportunity.  It doesn’t do a team a great deal of good if you are efficient, but can’t get a shot off.   At the same time, you should be penalized if you take a ton of shots and are inefficient.

            The final step was to determine a level of evaluation.   For this a replacement level was created.  Replacement level is a popular new age baseball statistic.  It is designed to evaluate a player on what they contribute instead of a player who would be called up from AAA.  In the case of the NBA it is a player up from the D-League or an end of the bench offensive player. 

            On average 15 players played for a team last year.  The replacement level was set at 10 players per roster or 300 player’s league wide.  This is somewhat arbitrary.

         Put that all together and you have the Locke Offensive Rating System.

Understanding the Ratings in the Locke

The Top 30 players rate as 25 or higher

The League Average Rating is a 10.

If a player is rated below 0 he is below replacement level

Today we look at the Utah Jazz both of the last two seasons

2006-07 Utah Jazz – Locke Offensive Stat

Observations: 

1)      Deron Williams regular season was a huge jump from his rookie season, but he didn’t have an overwhelmingly efficient offensive season.   The issue is that in the regular season of possessions that ended in his hand he only went to the free throw line 9% of the time.  In contrast, Gilbert Arenas went 15% of the possessions that ended in his hand.   Tomorrow I will show the playoff numbers.

2)      Gordan Giricek had a surprisingly good season.   He shot 46% from the field and 42% of from the three.   That will give you a strong Locke rating.   25% of the possessions that ended in his hands were 3 pt shots that is a huge jump from the year before when he was a 12%.   His offensive numbers in 06-07 are much better than 05-06.

3)      How did AK come out decently?  First, if you turn it over this stat doesn’t penalize you and AK turned it over 21% of the possessions that ended in his hand last year.  The key for AK is he goes to the line.  He gets fouled and that is most efficient play in the game.  He went to the line 16% of the possessions that ended in his hand.  This is a 3% drop from the previous year. 

4)      Derek Fischer’s regular season offense should not be hard to replace.  It might be a real blessing that the Jazz got out from under his contract. 

5)      Carlos Boozer is a stud.  He ranked #15 overall in the NBA and #3 at the power forward behind Dirk and Dwight Howard.

6)      Paul Milsap’s 15 for a rookie is great and totally changed what this team did off the bench. In the previous year they were substituting players below the replacement level.

Any thoughts on this or questions?   Put them in the comments.