Locke Offensive Rating (Looks at efficiency and the ability to get a shot off)
I devised this rating to value the efficiency of a players use of a possession coupled with his ability to get a shot off. In other words, a player maybe very efficient but it only does you any good if he has the talent to get the shot off. At the same time, a player may put up good numbers, but if his use of a possession is poor it hurts the team.
Any score under 0 implies that the players is below replacement level, in other words the top 300 players in the league. Using a possessions above the league average is a big deal. Imagine if a team has every player in their rotation using a possession above the league average or if 4 of the 5 players on the floor do.
|
Season
|
Korver
|
Giricek
|
Lea Avg
|
Top 30
|
|
07-08
|
3.4
|
-8.6
|
8.5
|
23
|
|
06-07
|
18.2
|
15.0
|
10.0
|
24
|
|
05-06
|
15.2
|
-5.1
|
8.5
|
23
|
What this means: Korver was a far better player when he was playing off some the primary players such as Iverson and Webber. When he had to create his own offense or was not around players that drew attention he really struggled. I would anticipate he returns to the 06-07, 05-06 numbers which are strong in the NBA.
|
Season
|
Korver
|
Giricek
|
League Avg
|
|
07-08
|
.090
|
.032
|
.232
|
|
06-07
|
.156
|
.113
|
.233
|
|
05-06
|
.148
|
.014
|
.227
|
What this means: For the past three years, even when Giricek was at his best Korver has been better. Moreso, neither of these players do a lot, they are shooters and Korver maybe better.
|
Season
|
Korver
|
Giricek
|
League Avg
|
|
07-08
|
242
|
121
|
430
|
|
06-07
|
330
|
288
|
432
|
|
05-06
|
282
|
164
|
429
|
What this means: Same as above Korver is better in all three years. This also shows that these are one dimensional players.
Since it is clear that both of these players are one dimensional players let’s look at how good a shooter they are and how they use their possessions. We will look at shooting ability in three ways, Effective Field Goal % (which weighs shooting % for three point shots), Pts per Scoring Opportunity (includes trips to free throw line and Pts per Field Goal Attempt.
|
Season
|
EFG%
|
Pts per SO
|
Pts per FG
|
|||
|
07-08
|
51%
|
46
|
1.03
|
.93
|
1.10
|
.93
|
|
06-07
|
57%
|
57
|
1.14
|
1.13
|
1.26
|
1.25
|
|
05-06
|
58%
|
48
|
1.15
|
.96
|
1.23
|
1.03
|
Here is how they use their possessions. At the end of each possession a player can do one of 4 things when the ball ends in his hands, shot a 2, shot a three, go to the line or turn it over.
The %’s below represent the what the player does when the play end in his hand. For example in 05-06 on 48% of the possessions that end in Korver’s hand he shot a 3 whereas in 06-07 it was only 29% of the possessions.
|
Season
|
2 pt FG
|
3 pt FG
|
Free Throw
|
Turnover
|
|||||
|
07-08
|
44%
|
55
|
40%
|
28%
|
6%
|
.4%
|
10%
|
17%
|
|
|
06-07
|
51%
|
54
|
29%
|
25%
|
9%
|
8%
|
11%
|
13%
|
|
|
05-06
|
35%
|
69
|
48%
|
13%
|
6%
|
5%
|
11%
|
13%
|
|
What this means: It jumps out to me that Korver didn’t shot the three as much last year. My guess is teams started defending him and wouldn’t allow him to have that opportunity. He also went to the line more last year. With the Jazz I would guess his numbers from three shot back up.
Giricek’s .4% of his possessions being free throws is shocking.
I still don't have a firm read on how Miles will do, Brewer could use some pressure from another hungry player, Harpring is one bad test result away from being gone for the season (and maybe it would help him to take some time off and rest his knee), and who knows if AK is going to be around. I hope Sloan gives this kid a chance -- and fast. And I hope Korver responds.
I have to say that even at 16-16, I don't feel as discouraged now as I did at the end of last season when they went on that three week swoon and lost first-round home court. That was depressing, as far as being a Jazz fan goes. This year, though, I think they can pull it together, maybe get on a nice roll with all these home games, and go into the All-Star break with a little momentum.
To win 50, they'll have to finish the year 34-16. That's pretty good ball they're gonna' have to play. With 24 of the 50 remaining on the road, and 26 at home, let's assume they finish 20-6 in the remaining home games. That would mean they'd have to go 14-10 on the road. This team is good enought to pull it off. They've only been blown out a few times this year, so... if they can get focused and improve their hunger at the defensive end, they can get into the playoffs with a 4, 5 or 6 seed. HOPEFULLY.
Go Jazz.
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