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27 March 2008
Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
Complete Jazz Coverage, only on 1320 KFAN and thefansports.com.

The Jazz have 10 games left in the regular season and are in the middle of stretch run to fight for home court in at least the first round of the NBA Playoffs.  Here is a break down of the games left for the teams fighting for home court.

Notes to Understand break down. 
- By each team I have listed the number of games left, then in parenthesis the number of home then road games.  I'm also counting Denver as a playoff team.
- The asterisk at the end of games nots that the game is a part of a back to back.
- Highlighted games represent predicted losses.

Utah Jazz - 10 Games (6/4), 6 playoff teams, 7 winning records, 1 back 2 back

LA Clippers

@ Minnesota T-Wolves*

Washington Wizards*

Minnesota T-Wolves

San Antonio Spurs

@ New Orleans Hornets

@ Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Houston Rockets (2nd game of Rockets back 2 back)

@ San Antonio Spurs

(Prediciton 8 - 2) - I'm not sure where the second loss comes, but there are a couple of different possibilities (@ Dallas, @ New Orleans, or playing down to 1 of the "easy wins".)

 

Phoenix Suns - 11 Games (5/6), 7 playoff teams, 8 winning records, 3 b2b's

@ Philadelphia 76ers*

@ New Jersey Nets*

Denver Nuggets**

@ Denver Nuggets**

Minnesota T-Wolves

Dallas Mavericks

@ Memphis Grizzlies***

@ San Antonio Spurs***

@ Houston Rockets

Golden State Warriors

Portland Trailblazers

(Prediciton - 8 - 3)

 

San Antonio Spurs - 10 Games (6/4), 6 playoff teams, 7 winning records, 1 b2b

Minnesota T-Wolves

Houston Rockets

Golden State Warriors

@ Utah Jazz

@ Portland Trailblazers

Phoenix Suns

Seattle Sonics

@ LA Lakers*

@ Sacramento Kings*

Utah Jazz

(Prediciton 8 - 2)

 

Houston Rockets - 10 Games (3/7), 4 playoff teams, 5 winning records, 2 b2b's

@ San Antonio Spurs

@ Sacramento Kings

@ Portland Trailblazers*

@ Seattle Sonics*

@ LA Clippers

Seattle Sonics

Phoenix Suns

@ Denver Nuggets**

@ Utah Jazz**

LA Clippers

(Prediciton 6 - 4)

 

LA Lakers - 10 Games (7/3), 4 playoff teams, 5 winning records, 1 b2b

Memphis Grizzlies

Washington Wizards

Portland Trailblazers

Dallas Mavericks

@ Sacramento Kings

@ Portland Trailblazers

@ LA Clippers*

New Orleans Hornets*

San Antonio Spurs

Sacramento Kings

(Prediciton 9 - 1) - I'm not sure I see a loss here.  I guess it could be me hoping, but I don't see them going 10 -0.

 

New Orleans Hornets - 12 Games (4/8), 7 playoff teams, 7 winning records, 4 b2b's

@ Boston Celtics

@ Toronto Raptors

@ Orlando Magic*

@ Miami Heat*

New York Knicks

Golden State Warriors

Utah Jazz**

@ Minnesota T-Wolves**

@ LA Lakers ***

@ Sacramento Kings***

LA Clippers ****

@ Dallas Mavericks****

(Prediciton 8 - 4)

 

If (and it won't, but if) all goes as I have mapped out the final standing would be as follows;

LA Lakers                       - 58 - 24 (A nice cake walk for the Lakers in the final 10.)
NO Hornets                     - 57 - 25  (The toughest schedule in my opinion.)
San Antonio Spurs        - 57 - 25
UTAH JAZZ                      - 55 - 27
Houston Rockets           - 55 - 27
Phoenix Suns                 - 55 - 27

This would give the Jazz home court due to tie breakers over both Houston (given Utah beats them on the 14th), and the Suns.  But this is if it goes as mapped out.  If the Jazz don't go  8 - 2, or the Rockets/Suns win 1 more game than predicted, it's to the road for the Jazz.

What do you think?  Post Comments in the comment section below.   

Posted by bbagley at 6:37 PM | Link | 7 comments
Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
I like your breakdown, but what you haven't included is whether Kobe loses control of his temper and is suspended for a game at some point before the end of the season. He's on his 15th right now and I have a hard time seeing him keeping his intensity under control. The Lakers seem to lose many of the games he is "teed up". By the way, what is the average # of games per a technical foul for him? One for every 4.5 games? - Marc
Posted by ma on March 27, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
Very good analysis, thanks for sharing the break down. Boy, you are being optimistic for the Rockets, having them win 4 of 5 road games in a row. Even though some of those teams aren't playoff contenders, Portland and the Kings are decent, and the Clippers will have Elton back, so I think they are more likely to loose 2 or 3 of those road games. Personally I see the Jazz, Spurs, and Suns all with tying records or very close by the end of things. Should be interesting!
Posted by ggriffin on March 27, 2008 at 5:43 PM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
You don't think the Lakers can lose on the road to Sac or Portland? They can't lose at home to New Orleans or San Antonio?
Didn't they just lose home games to Golden State and Charlotte?
Just goes to show, predicting the west, even the last 10 games is nearly impossible.
Posted by craig2112 on March 28, 2008 at 5:07 AM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
craig2112 - I agree, I do think the Lakers loss a game, but there schedule is a cake walk. Not calling games to the Hornets and San Antonio easy games, but no back to backs they'll be rested, and mostly at home. I just don't know where the loss comes from.
Posted by bbagley on March 28, 2008 at 11:56 AM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
ggriffin - Good point. Maybe that is a little optimistic for the Rockets. The NBA Scout said yesterday that he sees the Kings wrecking havoc in the stretch run on playoff teams. Each team (except the Jazz and Suns) play them in this stretch (the Lakers twice). So it could be the Rockets drop one more.
Posted by bbagley on March 28, 2008 at 11:59 AM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
Hoping the Jazz can get homecourt in the #4 spot. And really hoping that th Hornets hold on to the #1. If so, I really like Utah's chances of making it to the WCFs again. But if the Lakers get the #1, I see us out in Round 2. The Lakers are to us now what the Spurs used to be. They have an edge on the Jazz, whether Gasol plays or not.
Posted by lawboy on March 28, 2008 at 3:47 PM

Re: Bagley - The Stretch Run for Home Court.
For somebody that doesn't follow the Hornets much I wouldn't say you are too far off. I see the Hornets finishing 10-2. We already lost to the Celtics so that is one loss, however I don't see them losing to the Mavs. The second loss would be between LA and the Warriors. I don't see them losing to the Jazz either. They are figuring out how to play with them (from last games showing). Julien Wright and Bonzi Wells are driving to the basket, meanwhile they are using Pargo, and James to wear down D-Will, letting cp3 use his speed to beat d-will. Now when d-will posts up cp3 he has to worry about the charge so thats just one more thing to consider. All in all nice write up.
Posted by amgeg4 on April 2, 2008 at 1:33 PM

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