If you have listened to Locked on Sports you have all learned Rule #2 of Locked on Sports, the average trip the free throw line gives a team 1.5 points, the average three point shot give a team 1.08 points per shot and the average two point shot gives a team .97 points per shot.
Therefore when John Hollinger of ESPN was on Locked on Sports and made an off hand comment that he liked the Jazz, but they foul too much and it is going to cost them it rang a bell. Then I watch the Jazz send the Lakers to the line time after time and I began to wonder if the Jazz have a philosophical flaw.
It is undeniable that a part of Jerry Sloan’s defensive philosophy is to foul. Since he took over the reigns as head coach in 1988 the Jazz have allowed 4,068 more free throws than the average NBA team has allowed in that time span. That is over 200 per season.
The trend has worsened since the retirement of Marc Eaton in 1992-93. Over the past 15 years Jazz opponents are on average taking 282 more free throws a season than the average. Over the past 10 years opponents have taken 301 more free throws per season than the average and over the past 5 years the Jazz opponents have taken 418 more free throws than the average team in the NBA
Not since the 1991-92 season have the Jazz held their opponent to below the league average of free throws taken in a season.
Remember each free throw is worth .766 points a game.
In the 2007-08 season the Jazz opponents took 2468 free throws. The average team in the NBA took 2045. Therefore, Jazz opponents took an extra 423 free throws over the course of the season, 5 a game. Five free throws a game are worth nearly 4 points a game.
It is worth noting that over the past 20 years the Jazz average shooting 20 more free throws a season than their opponent. However, over the past 10 years the Jazz have allowed opponents to shot 77 free throws per season.
The thought behind this philosophy is that by fouling on easy looks you are saving points. For that to be true the Jazz FG% defense would need to be better than the rest of the league. However, over the past 5 years the Jazz FG% defense is the exact same as the league and over the past 10 years is just .4% better than the league average.
The average team takes 81.5 shot attempts in an NBA game. The Jazz opponent takes a one or two less since they are going to the free throw line so much.
The Jazz holding teams to .4% better shooting percentage is only one shot every three games.
Let me give you a hypothetical.
The Jazz philosophy is that they will not give up any easy looks around the basket and therefore, they foul the shooter. Using some of the above numbers let’s assume this happens three times in a game. If the Jazz foul all three times the opponent will shot 6 free throws and on average come away with 4.6 points. Therefore, if the shooter were to miss one of the three shots the Jazz would be better off not fouling since he would only get 4 points.
This is not entirely accurate because the real problem with fouling is that you put the team in the penalty and then they get two free throws on off ball fouls, ticky tack fouls, etc.
However, even if everything went perfectly I would argue that fouling when you are beat is bad idea. You are better off contesting the shot or hoping for a miss. The Utah Jazz shot just 61% on shots inside 5 feet for the entire season.
Just some food for thought in the off-season.
Click here for the spreadsheet and a more detailed year to year breakdown
Great analysis. Spot on. The Jazz play a great brand of basketball, but sometimes they have these philosophical flaws that, I think, are simply caused by Jerry not being in tune with the statistical work done by others. The example on offense would be the Jazz' failure to incorporate the 3 point shot in general and the corner 3 point shot in particular.
It isn't that the game has passed Jerry by, it's just that he doesn't understand that shooting 35% from 23 feet away is better than shooting 50% from 20 feet away.
However, as great as he is, Sloan has always been a stubborn coach and is often not willing to change regardless of the results. We saw that on the offensive end with the Jazz forcing pass after pass to the inside instead of opting for the open jumpers that the Lakers were giving them. The same can be said for the Jazz defense schemes, which haven't changed in the 20-plus years that Sloan has coached this team.
Have you considered that the refs call more on the Jazz because they don't like Jerry? Jerry has a reputation, yes! And many don't like his attitude, and have even carried it to call people a-Jerry-Sloan-type-player. ie Harpring. Over the years if the fouls go up I would agrue the refs are getting an attitude against Sloan. Otherwise it should relatively stay the same over the long-term because his policy of coaching hasn't changed. And Lock you say it has gone up over the years.
Enough said.
It would be interesting to see if there was a correlation between opponent foul shots and defensive efficiency. Taking a quick look at Basketball Reference, it appears that the Spurs gave up the least amount of foul shots last year and were the 2nd best defense. The year before, the Pistons, Spurs and Grizzlies were all in the top 5 in defensive efficiency and in least number of opponent foul shots.
Long story short, recent Pistons and Spurs teams are seen as much more "hard nosed" than the Jazz, yet they foul much less. Fouling isn't tough, it's usually just stupid.
That's the fun thing about stats, there are a million different ways to interpret them (particularly when they're based on percentiles . . . ), lest you make a post hoc ergo proctor hoc error :-).
One other thing, I don't know if you want feedback on this or not, but I'm going to give it to you anyway. When you were discussing this interview with some people from the Jazz (I think it was Larry and maybe someone else, I only heard part of the interview . . .) you kept using the pronouns we and us when referring to the jazz. It seems that doing so might make your case of being an unbiased reporter that is covering (as opposed to working for) the jazz difficult to make. I know larry signs your paychecks, but it's still a little weird.
That said, I don't think you have really ever gone easy on the Jazz. I think you've done a good job asking hard questions. Also, it might just be me that is irked by that (and it could be because I am not a Jazz fan), so you might want to solicit some additional feedback on the topic. Keep up the good work!
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