There has been much discussion about BYU making a BCS game if they are undefeated or even with one loss. There has even been discussion of a BCS championship possibility. This would be appropriate if BYU had a recent or long term tradition that would move the meter nationally (not just in a weak conference). Therefore it would be helpful to look at the actual facts for 28 years of history of BYU against all the teams that are currently BCS teams and their resulting winning percentages against such teams. For your interest I have divided these teams up by whether they finished High (top 3-4), Mid (4-6) or Low (6 and lower) in their conference the year they played BYU. Some teams were in different conferences or independent and anyone outside of the final top 25 was considered Low if no other measure was available.

The fact is BYU has a monkey on its back about beating any BCS level team, even the poor ones. This is especially true in the early season games and against the Pac 10. That continues to be their legacy. The results are telling.



1. BYU played 83 games against current BCS teams between 1980 and 2007. 35 of these were against the Pac10 and UCLA and Washington were their most repeated opponents overall.



2. Of 83 games BYU has a 42.8% winning percentage or a record of 35-47-1 (I count the tie as a half a win in the percentage calc) overall.



3. They are worse in the last 15 years with a 39.5% winning percentage (17-26).



4. They are even worse in the Bronco era with a 37.5% winning percentage (3-5).



5. Their winning percentage against overall teams Low to High tells even more.



25-12 or 67.6% against the Low cellar dwellers they lose one third of their games, these are generally teams that had less than 3 wins the entire season.



7-17-1 or 30% against the mid level teams (usually the type BYU plays in Bowl games with usually 4 to 6 losses.



3-18 or 14.3% against the high level teams (usually early season games). Yes, they have won 3 games against high performing BCS teams in 28 years. That does not a tradition make.



6. Their worst nightmare over the past 28 years has been the Pac 10.


Overall 13-22 or 37.1%



7-7 or 50% against Low cellar dwellers. They lost half their games against absolutely terrible Pac 10 teams.



4-7 or 36.4% against Mid level teams.



1-8 or 11.1% against High level teams. There are 1-AA teams that can boast this kind of record.



There is no question that BYU can today and has historically dominated its weak conference most years. However, it has performed poorly against BCS teams and even worse against the Pac 10. Further their performance has deteriorated over the past 28 years and Bronco has not improved the results in spite of winning two out of three bowl games. BYU has success against teams with limited talent, speed and depth, has the occasional great performance against a quality foe but generally cannot deal with even average to slightly above average BCS talent teams (particularly defenses) and has struggled frequently or lost to even the worst teams in such conferences. Bronco has not changed that trend. BYU last year was a completely different team against a team with average BCS talent. He has an opportunity this year to play what appear to be two very weak Pac 10 teams (preseason 6th and 8th in the Pac10). History would say he will be 1-1. Recent history would say he may lose both. BYU has an experienced team this year but one that still has not demonstrated it has a productive offense, or one that can protect the QB or run the ball effectively or avoid turnovers against average BCS defenses. If you look at the depth chart they have no depth in the line especially. BYUs defense has many spots to fill. I am not sure they have any games against teams that have demonstrated an effective run and pass attack. BYU plays zone and can get away with it against many teams but not the Mid and High BCS teams. Their luck this year is that both UCLA and Washington may start the season disorganized and flustered offensively just as Arizona did last year.



So what is the bottom line? BYU has an opportunity to be one of the last non-BCS teams standing if they get past UW and UCLA. (Interestingly enough if Utah gets past Mich which would be an upset in my mind they would be the other) There is virtually no other non-BCS team that has a chance to be undefeated after 5 weeks. BYU's schedule this year is equivalent to that of ARMY and one of the weakest in all division 1-A football. I have done the stats on that one as well. Should Army be in a BCS game if they go undefeated? Of course not. Should Hawaii have been invited last year, no. Should an undefeated BYU be invited this year, also no. There is almost no chance that BYU, with all the losses their opponents will sustain, can rise to #12 in the strength of schedule weighted BCS poll. UCLA and Washington will be hard pressed to win 5 games each.



BYU fans will gripe when they see possibly as many as a dozen teams leap-frog them this year. Of course some will drop behind as well. But, as we saw last year any team i the top 5 will have to lose at least 3 and possibly 4 games to drop behind BYU. Teams in the Top 6-10 will probably have to lose 2 games. The first will be #18 Tenn. if they beat UCLA in week one or if Illinois beats Missouri or if Oregon beats Washington or if South Florida beats Kansas in week 3 or if Penn St beats Oregon State in week 2 (or OSU if beats PSU), or if Wake beats FSU and Clemson or if Michigan beats Utah, ND and Wisc in the first 4 weeks or if Utah beats Michigan or if Fresno beats Rutgers and Wisc in the first 2 weeks.



You see the problem. BYU needs a meter moving game to go along with their nothing conference games to move the national meter. All the other top 25 teams have them. BYU has none and has been given a gift by the pollsters by starting at #17 because starting any lower would doom them to permanent obscurity for the whole season. Utah has a chance because they have two top 25 teams on their schedule not counting BYU. The only question is how many spots will BYU drop after a week one win against a 1-AA school while these other teams behind them are playing real games. Hummmm&

As far as a national champ game opportunity, it is a two year road for a non-BCS team. They must go undefeated and win at least one meter moving game during the first season. They must make a BCS bowl that year, get a game against a team that is highly respected and win it decisively. They then must be preseason ranked in the top 7 the following year and have 6 teams above them lose at least 2 games with a couple of them losing 3 games. They must also be undefeated and again win at least one game against a major power team that is having a good year. They then would have a shot. This is an impossible scenario when you don't schedule such teams and can't win more than 30 something percent against even average teams.



It would be a disservice to the sport to allow a team with a schedule like Army or BYU to ascend to a BCS game. It sends the wrong message just as Hawaii did until they got pasted last year. I like the BYU schedules of the old Wac when you could have as many as 5 non-conference games. This is what the non-BCS teams need to get back to. Have the large conference, forget the semi-rivalries and play a mix of other conferences including 3-4 BCS teams with one real tough one in there. Yes, BYU has made a huge mistake with this year's schedule. They should have taken that August 30th game at Florida State or Wisconsin. That is the type of move that gets you noticed. By the way USC has open dates two of the next three years. Then they would have some bragging rights. Right now BYU only has whining rights. Enjoy the month of August non-bcs fans. Then enjoy the conference play, that is all there is until a reasonable playoff happens.